Working Papers 2010-2024
| 24.02 | Sylvia Kaufmann and Rodney W. Strachan | Dynamic factor models with common (drifting) stochastic trends |
| 24.01 | Nils Herger | A Runs Test for Stock-Market Prices with an Unobserved Trend |
| 23.04 | Sylvia Kaufmann and Markus Pape | Bayesian (non-)unique sparse factor modelling |
| 23.03 | Martin Brown, Jan Schmitz and Christian Zehnder | Moral Constraints, Social Norm Enforcement and Strategic Default in Weak and Strong Economic Conditions |
| 23.02 | Martin Brown, Jan Schmitz and Christian Zehnder | Communication and Hidden Action: A Credit Market Experiment |
| 23.01 | Piero Gottardi, Vincent Maurin and Cyril Monnet | Fragility of Secured Credit Chains |
| 22.04 | Lucas Fuhrer and Nils Herger | Real interest rates and population growth across generations |
| 22.03 | Cyril Monnet and Todd Keister | Central Bank Digital Currency: Stability and Information |
| 22.02R | Sylvia Kaufmann | Covid-19 outbreak and beyond: A retrospect on the information content of registered short-time workers for GDP now- and forecasting. |
| 22.02 | Sylvia Kaufmann | Covid-19 outbreak and beyond: A retrospect on the information content of registered short-time workers for GDP now- and forecasting. |
| 22.01 | Martín Gonzalez-Eiras and Dirk Niepelt | The Political Economy of Early COVID-19 Interventions in US States |
| 21.01 | Raphael Auer, Cyril Monnet and Hyun Song Shin | Distributed Ledgers and the Governance of Money |
| 20.06 | Martín Gonzalez-Eiras and Dirk Niepelt | Optimally Controlling an Epidemic |
| 20.05 | Dirk Niepelt | Monetary Policy with Reserves and CBDC: Optimality, Equivalence, and Politics |
| 20.04 | Toni Beutler, Matthias Gubler, Simona Hauri and Sylvia Kaufmann | Bank lending in Switzerland: Capturing cross-sectional heterogeneity and asymmetry over time |
| 20.03 | Sylvia Kaufmann | Covid-19 outbreak and beyond: The information content of registered short-time workers for GDP now and forecasting |
| 20.02 | Martín Gonzalez-Eiras and Dirk Niepelt | Tractable Epidemiological Models for Economic Analysis |
| 20.01 | Martín Gonzalez-Eiras and Dirk Niepelt | On the Optimal "Lockdown" During an Epidemic |
| 19.06 | Nils Herger | Unregulated and regulated free banking. The case of Switzerland reinterpreted |
| 19.05 | Markus K. Brunnermeier and Dirk Niepelt | On the Equivalence of Private and Public Money |
| 19.04 | Chao Gu, Cyril Monnet, Ed Nosal and Randall Wright | On the Instability of Banking and Other Financial Intermediation |
| 19.03 | Simon Beyeler | Streamlining Time-varying VAR with a Factor Structure in the Parameters |
| 19.02 | Maria Bolboaca and Sarah Fischer | Unraveling News: Reconciling Conflicting Evidence |
| 19.01 | Maria Bolboaca and Sarah Fischer | News Shocks: Different Effects in Boom and Recession? |
| 18.03 | Stephan Imhof, Cyril Monnet and Shengxing Zhang | The Risk-Taking Channel of Liquidity Regulations and Monetary Policy |
| 18.02 | Dirk Niepelt | Reserves for All? Central Bank Digital Currency, Deposits, and their (Non)-Equivalence |
| 18.01 | Nicole Aregger | Asset Prices under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes |
| 17.04 | Nils Herger | Testing the interest parity condition with Irving Fisher’s example of Indian rupee and sterlingbonds in the London financial market (1869-1906). |
| 17.03 | Nicole Aregger and Jessica Leutert | Unconventional Monetary Policy under Appreciation Pressure -The Role of Financial Frictions |
| 17.02 | Nicole Aregger and Jessica Leutert | Policy Evaluation by the Synthetic Control Approach: The Case of the Swiss Franc |
| 17.01 | Nils Herger | An empirical assessment of the Swedish Bullionist Controversy |
| 16.08R | Simon Beyeler and Sylvia Kaufmann | Factor augmented VAR revisited - A sparse dynamic factor model approach |
| 16.08 | Simon Beyeler and Sylvia Kaufmann | Factor augmented VAR revisited - A sparse dynamic factor model approach |
| 16.07 | Adrien Alvero and Andreas M. Fischer | Exchange rate floor and central bank balance sheets: Simple spillover tests of the Swiss franc |
| 16.06 | Sylvia Kaufmann | Hidden Markov models in time series, with applications in economics |
| 16.05 | Martín Gonzalez-Eiras and Dirk Niepelt | Fiscal Federalism, Taxation and Grants |
| 16.04 | Pinar Yesin | Capital Flows and the Swiss Franc |
| 16.03 | Pinar Yesin | Exchange Rate Predictability and State-of-the-Art Models |
| 16.02 | Gregor Bäurle, Daniel Kaufmann, Sylvia Kaufmann and Rodney W. Strachan | Changing dynamics at the zero lower bound |
| 16.01 | Alin Marius Andries, Andreas M. Fischer and Pinar Yesin | The impact of international swap lines on stock returns of banks in emerging markets |
| 15.05 | Toni Beutler, Robert Bichsel, Adrian Bruhin and Jayson Danton | The Impact of Interest Rate Risk on Bank Lending |
| 15.04 | Nils Herger | An uncovered interest parity condition that worked – The continental investment demand for London bills of exchange during the gold standard (1880 -1914). |
| 15.03 | Raphael A. Auer | Human Capital and the Dynamic Effects of Trade |
| 15.02 | Pinar Yesin | Capital flow waves to and from Switzerland before and after the financial crisis |
| 15.01 | Raphael A. Auer | Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Domestic Competition, and Inflation: Evidence from the 2005/08 Revaluation of the Renminbi |
| 14.07 | Harris Dellas and Dirk Niepelt | Austerity |
| 14.06 | Romain Baeriswyl | Intertemporal discoordination in the 100 percent reserve banking system |
| 14.05 | Raphael A. Auer and Aaron Mehrotra | Trade linkages and the globalisation of inflation in Asia and the Pacific |
| 14.04 | Sylvia Kaufmann | K-state switching models with time-varying transition distributions – Does credit growth signal stronger effects of variables on inflation? |
| 14.03 | Paul Gaggl and Sylvia Kaufmann | The Cyclical Component of Labor MarketPolarization and Jobless Recoveries in the US |
| 14.02 | Nils Herger and Steve McCorriston | Horizontal, Vertical, and Conglomerate FDI: Evidence from Cross Border Acquisitions |
| 14.01 | Philipp Harms, Jaewon Jung and Oliver Lorz | Offshoring and Sequential Production Chains: A General-Equilibrium Analysis |
| 13.08 | Nils Herger | Market Entries and Exits and the Nonlinear Behaviour of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices |
| 13.07 | Irineu de Carvalho Filho | Risk-off Episodes and Swiss Franc Appreciation: the Role of Capital Flows |
| 13.06 | Pinar Yesin | Foreign Currency Loans and Systemic Risk in Europe |
| 13.05 | Harris Dellas and Dirk Niepelt | Credibility For Sale |
| 13.04 | Sylvia Kaufmann and Christian Schuhmacher | Bayesian Estimation of Sparse Dynamic Factor Models with Order-Independent Identification |
| 13.03 | Raphael A. Auer | What Drives Target2 Balances? Evidence From a Panel Analysis |
| 13.02 | Nils Herger | On Discrete Location Choice Models |
| 13.01 | Raphael A. Auer | Product Heterogeneity, Cross-Country Taste Differences, and the Consumption Home Bias |
| 12.03 | Toni Beutler | Forecasting Exchange Rates with Commodity Convenience Yields |
| 12.02 | Martín Gonzalez-Eiras and Dirk Niepelt | Economic and Politico-Economic Equivalence |
| 12.01 | Filippo Brutti and Philip Sauré | Transmission of Sovereign Risk in the Euro Crisis |
| 11.11 | Toni Beutler and Mathieu Grobéty | The Collateral Channel under Imperfect Debt Enforcement |
| 11.10 | Philipp Harms and Pierre-Guillaume Méon | An FDI is an FDI is an FDI? The growth effects of greenfield investment and mergers and acquisitions in developing countries |
| 11.09 | Yves Ortiz | Prices and Choices in the Swiss Health Care Insurance Market |
| 11.08 | Yves Ortiz and Martin Schüle | Limited Rationality and Strategic Interaction: A Probabilistic Multi-Agent Model |
| 11.07 | Salvatore Dell’Erba and Dennis Reinhardt | Surfing the Capital Waves: A sector-level examination of surges in FDI inflows |
| 11.06 | Martín Gonzalez-Eiras and Dirk Niepelt | Ageing, Government Budgets, Retirement, and Growth |
| 11.05 | Emanuel Kohlscheen | The Journal Rankings of Central Banks |
| 11.04 | Raphael Auer and Philip Sauré | Spatial Competition in Quality, Demand-Induced Innovation, and Schumpeterian Growth |
| 11.03 | Raphael Auer and Philip Sauré | CHF Strength and Swiss Export Performance – Evidence and Outlook From a Disaggregate Analysis |
| 11.02 | Raphael Auer, Kathrin Degen and Andreas M. Fischer | Low-Wage Import Competition, Inflationary Pressure, and Industry Dynamics in Europe |
| 11.01 | Roland Hodler | Development (Paradigm) Failures |
| 10.05 | Roland Hodler and Paul A. Raschky | Foreign Aid and Enlightened Leaders |
| 10.04 | Roland Hodler | Compulsory Voting and Public Finance |
| 10.03 | Philipp Harms, Mathias Hoffmann and Christina Ortseifer | The Home Bias in Equities and Distribution Costs |
| 10.02 | Dennis Reinhardt | Into the Allocation Puzzle - A Sectoral Analysis |
| 10.01 | Roland Hodler, Simon Loertscher and Dominic Rohner | Biased Experts, Costly Lies, and Binary Decisions |
Working Papers 2000-2009
| 09.06 | Philipp Harms and Mathias Hoffmann | Deciding to Peg the Exchange Rate in Developing Countries: The Role of Private-Sector Debt |
| 09.05 | Raphael Auer | Product Heterogeneity, Within-Industry Trade Patterns, and the Home Bias of Consumption? |
| 09.04 | Philippe Bacchetta, Eric van Wincoop and Toni Beutler | Can Parameter Instability Explain the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle? |
| 09.03 | Raphael Auer | The Colonial and Geographic Origins of Comparative Development |
| 09.02 | Philipp Harms and Philipp an de Meulen | The Demographics of Expropriation Risk |
| 09.01 | Philipp Harms, Oliver Lorz and Dieter Urban | Offshoring Along the Production Chain |
| 08.05 | Dirk Niepelt | Debt Maturity without Commitment |
| 08.04 | Nils Herger | Explaining Bank Failures in the United States: The Role of Self-Fulfilling Prophecies, Systemic Risk, Banking Regulation, and Contagion |
| 08.03 | Gregor Bäurle and Tobias Menz | Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy Model: A DSGE-VAR Approach for Switzerland |
| 08.02 | Elmar Mertens | Managing Beliefs about Monetary Policy under Discretion |
| 08.01 | Elmar Mertens | Are Spectral Estimators Useful for Implementing Long-Run Restrictions in SVARs? |
| 07.05 | Martín Gonzalez-Eiras and Dirk Niepelt | Population Ageing, Government Budgets, and Productivity Growth in Politico-Economic Equilibrium |
| 07.04 | Oya Celasun and Philipp Harms | How does private foreign borrowing affect the risk of sovereign default in developing countries? |
| 07.03 | Philipp Harms and Marco Kretschmann | Words, Deeds, and Outcomes: A Survey on the Growth Effects of Exchange Rate Regimes |
| 07.02 | Martín Gonzalez-Eiras and Dirk Niepelt | The Future of Social Security |
| 07.01 | Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop | Random Walk Expectations and the Forward Discount Puzzle |
| 06.04 | Philippe Bacchetta, Elmar Mertens and Eric van Wincoop | Predictability in Financial Markets: What Do Survey Expectations Tell Us? |
| 06.03 | Assar Lindbeck and Dirk Niepelt | The Stability Pact—Rationales, Problems, Alternatives |
| 06.02 | Philippe Aghion, Philippe Bacchetta, Romain Ranciere and Kenneth Rogoff | Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development |
| 06.01 | Pinar Yesin | Financing Government Expenditures Optimally |
| 05.05 | Elmar Mertens | Structural Shocks and the Comovements between Output and Interest Rates |
| 05.04 | Dirk Niepelt | Starving the Beast? Intra-Generational Conflict and Balanced Budget Rules |
| 05.03 | Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop | Incomplete Information Processing: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle |
| 05.02 | Marlene Amstad and Andreas M. Fischer | Shock Identification of Macroeconomic Forecasts based on Daily Panels |
| 05.01 | Andreas M. Fischer | Measuring Income Elasticity for Swiss Money Demand: What do the cantons say about financial innovation? |
| 04.07 | Dirk Niepelt | Timing Tax Evasion |
| 04.06 | Marlene Amstad and Andreas M. Fischer | Sequential Information Flow and Real-Time Diagnosis of Swiss Inflation: Intra-Monthly DCF Estimates for a Low-Inflation Environment |
| 04.05 | Philipp Harms and Michael Rauber | Foreign aid and developing countries’ creditworthiness |
| 04.04 | Andreas M. Fischer | Price Clustering in the FX Market: A Disaggregate Analysis using Central Bank Interventions |
| 04.03 | Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop | Higher Order Expectations in Asset Pricing |
| 04.02 | Pinar Yesin | Tax Collection Costs, Tax Evasion and Optimal Interest Rates |
| 04.01 | Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop | A Scapegoat Model of Exchange Rate Fluctuations |
| 03.07 | Samuel Reynard | Optimal Cyclical Monetary Policy: Does Steady-State Inflation Matter? |
| 03.06 | Andreas M. Fischer | On the Inadequacy of Newswire Reports for Empirical Research on Foreign Exchange Interventions |
| 03.05 | Bertrand Rime | The New Basel Accord: Implications of the Co-existence between the Standardized Approach and the Internal Ratings-based Approach |
| 03.04 | Philipp Harms and Matthias Lutz | Aid, Governance, and Private Foreign Investment: Some Puzzling Findings and a Possible Explanation |
| 03.03 | Ricarda Demarmels and Andreas M. Fischer | Understanding Reserve Volatility in Emerging Markets: A Look at the Long-Run |
| 03.02 | Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop | Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle? |
| 03.01 | Michael J. Dueker and Andreas M. Fischer | Fixing Swiss Potholes: The Importance and Cyclical Nature of Improvements |
| 02.08 | Monique Ebell and Christian Haefke | Product Market Deregulation and Labor Market Outcomes |
| 02.07 | Philipp Harms | Deregulation and the current account |
| 02.06 | Philipp Harms and Stefan Zink | Growing into and out of social conflict |
| 02.05 | Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop | Why Do Consumer Prices react less than Import Prices to Exchange Rates? |
| 02.04 | Robert Bichsel and Jürg Blum | The Relationship Between Risk and Capital in Swiss Commercial Banks: A Panel Study |
| 02.03 | Andreas M. Fischer | Fluctuations in the Swiss Franc: What has Changed Since the Euro's Introduction? |
| 02.02 | Ricarda Demamerls and Andreas M.Fischer | Understanding Reserve Volatility in Emerging Markets: A Look at the Last Thirty Years |
| 02.01 | Dueker, Michael J., Andreas M. Fischer and Robert D. Dittmar | Stochastic Capital Depreciation and the Comovement of Hours and Productivity |
| 01.07 | Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop | A Theory of the Currency Denomination of International Trade |
| 01.06 | Urs W. Birchler and Andréa M. Maechler | Do Depositors Discipline Swiss Banks? |
| 01.05 | Philippe Aghion, Philippe Bacchetta and Abhijit Banerjee | A Corporate Balance-Sheet Approach to Currency Crises |
| 01.04 | Don Morgan, Bertrand Rime and Philip Strahan | Bank Integration and Business Volatility in the U.S. |
| 01.03 | Bertrand Rime and Kevin J. Stiroh | The Performance of Universal Banks: Evidence from Switzerland |
| 01.02 | Michael Dueker and Andreas M. Fischer | The Mechanics of a Successful Exchange-Rate Peg: Lessons for Emerging Markets |
| 01.01 | Monique C. Ebell | Why Are Asset Returns More Volatile during Recessions? A Theoretical Explanation |
| 00.14 | Urs W. Birchler | Are Banks Excessively Monitored? |
| 00.13 | Harris Dellas and Martin K. Hess | Financial Development and Stock Market Performance |
| 00.12 | Nicolas A. Cuche | Alternative Indicator of Monetary Policy for a Small Open Economy |
| 00.11 | Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop | Trade Flows, Prices, and The Exchange Rate Regime |
| 00.10 | Nicolas A. Cuche | Monetary Policy with Forward-looking Rules: The Swiss Case |
| 00.09 | Andréa M. Maechler | The Politics of Trade Liberalization in the Presence of FDI Incentives |
| 00.08 | Jürg Blum | The Limits of Market Discipline in Reducing Banks' Risk Taking |
| 00.07 | Philippe Aghion, Philippe Bacchetta and Abhijit Banerjee | Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints |
| 00.06 | Harris Dellas and Martin K. Hess | Financial Development and the Sensitivity of Stock Markets to External Influences |
| 00.05 | Bertrand Rime | Bank Capital Behaviour: Empirical Evidence for Switzerland |
| 00.04 | Andreas M. Fischer | Do Interventions Smooth Interest Rates? |
| 00.03 | Philippe Bacchetta | Monetary Policy with Foreign Currency Debt |
| 00.02 | Dominik Egli and Bertrand Rime | The UBS-SBC Merger and Competition in the Swiss Retail Banking Sector |
| 00.01 | Urs W. Birchler | Bankruptcy Priority for Bank Deposits: a Contract Theoretic Explanation |
Working Papers 1993-1999
| 99.04 | Jeffrey H. Nilsen | Trade Credit and the Bank Lending Channel |
| 99.03 | Jeffrey H. Nilsen and Riccardo Rovelli | Modeling Financial Fragility in Transition Economies |
| 99.02 | Nicolas A. Cuche and Martin K. Hess | Estimating Monthly GDP in a General Kalman Filter Framework: Evidence from Switzerland |
| 99.01 | Philippe Aghion, Philippe Bacchetta and Abhijit Banerjee | Capital Markets and the Instability of Open Economies |
| 98.03 | Jeffrey H. Nilsen | Why Did Czech Banks Switch From Loans in 1995? |
| 98.02 | Philippe Aghion, Philippe Bacchetta Philippe and Abhijit Banerjee | Financial Liberalization and Volatility in Emerging Market Economies |
| 98.01 | Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop | Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Liberalization, Overshooting and Volatility |
| 97.01 | Philippe Bacchetta and Stefan Gerlach | Consumption and Credit Constraints: International Evidence |
| 96.01 | Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop | Trade in Nominal Assets and Net International Capital Flows |
| 95.11 | Philippe Bacchetta and María Paz Espinosa | Exchange-of-information Clauses in International Tax Treaties |
| 95.10 | Philippe Bacchetta | Exchange Rate Policy and Disinflation: The Spanish Experience in the ERM |
| 95.09 | Philippe Bacchetta and Ramon Caminal | Do Capital Market Imperfections Exacerbate Output Fluctuations? |
| 95.08 | Philippe Bacchetta and Fernando Ballabriga | The Impact of Monetary Policy and Bank Lending: Some International Evidence |
| 95.07 | Walter Wasserfallen | American vs. European Option Pricing Models: Does it Really Matter? |
| 95.06 | Walter Wasserfallen and Christoph Schenk | Portfolio Insurance for the Small Investor |
| 95.05 | Philippe Bacchetta | Capital Controls and the Political Discount: The Spanish Experience in the Late 1980s |
| 95.04 | Walter Wasserfallen and Daniel Liechti | The Hedging Performance of Swiss Interest Rate Futures |
| 95.03 | Philippe Bacchetta and Harris Dellas | Firm Restructuring and the Optimal Speed of Trade Reform |
| 95.02 | Walter Wasserfallen | Interest Rate Differentials and the Structure of Banks' Balance Sheets |
| 95.01 | René M. Stulz and Walter Wasserfallen | Foreign Equity Investment Restrictions, Capital Flight, and Shareholder Wealth Maximization, Theory and Evidence |
| 94.03 | Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop | Net Capital Flows under Exchange Rate and Price Volatility |
| 94.02 | Philippe Bacchetta and María Paz Espinosa | Information Sharing and Tax Competition among Governments |
| 94.01 | Philippe Bacchetta | Regional Investment and Growth in the European Community |
| 93.03 | Walter Wasserfallen and Christian Wittleder | Pricing Initial Public Offerings, Evidence from Germany |
| 93.02 | Walter Wasserfallen and Guido Kürsteiner | Money, Interest Rates and Exchange Rates in the Short Run |
| 93.01 | Thomas Stucki and Walter Wasserfallen | Stock and Option Markets: The Swiss Evidence |